One thing I do know is that this would be a great time for the U.S. to exercise a little change we can believe in.
Newsletter: Vol. 10. Iss. 2
February 2011
Don't Know Much About History,
cont'd.
on Egyptian standards. That was the straw that broke the camel's back, so to speak. Egyptians are out of patience.
The Facebook page used to rally supporters of the new protests is called, "Kefaya," which in Egyptian Arabic means "enough." The stated objectives of the protests are enough of torture, enough of government corruption, enough of unemployment, enough manipulation of elections and enough of the current regime headed by Hosni Mubarak. After the first two days in which the protesters were overwhelmingly young, their ranks are now filled with people of all ages, but the core is well educated, underemployed Egyptians, both men and women. While some of the demonstrators are religious-mosques and churches have been staging grounds for protests-the protestors are distinctly not "Islamists." After observing the protests for seven hours on Day One and Two, it was obvious that there was hardly a bearded man among the protesters indicating that fundamentalism is not a significant factor here. Further, there is no obvious sign that the protesters affiliate with any established political party. No banners or signs indicated political party affiliation. Universally, however, the protesters are fed up with the ruling National Democratic Party.
The protest movement is called variously kefaya or 6 April Youth Movement. Neither of these movements coalesced within established party structures. The traditional opposition movement, the Muslim Brotherhood, which has been officially outlawed in Egypt for 30 years did not anticipate the energy of this uprising and is a minor player. More telling, a leading opponent of the government, Dr. Mohammad el Baradei, the Nobel Laureate and former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, was napping at his home in Vienna when the uprising began. He returned from there to join the protests, but was placed under house arrest almost immediately. All traditional opposition groups are now trying to insert themselves into the protest mix, but they are an afterthought to the protesters. This is a broad, popular response to years of ineffective leadership, including that of the traditional opposition parties.
Another obvious and distinguishing characteristic of the protests is that there is no sign of anti Americanism. On the contrary, American ideals of democracy seem to provide some of the inspiration for the protests. If there are any negative aspersions on the United States, it is focused on the failure of the current U.S. administration, like all of its predecessors, to stand on the side of democracy. The U.S. is widely and correctly regarded as the Mubarak regime's primary patron. It is not possible that the U.S. was ignorant for the past thirty years of the corruption, the torture, the ineffectiveness and the suspension of civil liberties. Notwithstanding the saturation of the American public with media messages that we are despised in this neck of the woods, I see no evidence of this in Egypt-or anywhere else for that matter. Moreover, our travelers don't see any either. Egyptians may be frustrated that America is not really the America they dream about, but they are not anti American.
After several days of standard US rhetoric, there seems to be a slight shift indicating that the U.S. wants to distance itself from the Mubarak regime that it supported for 30 years. In light of the many times that the US has opted to support powerful regimes, instead of promoting democracy (South Africa, Iran, Algeria, Iraq), I can't help being cynical about US posturing and pretensions to promote democracy now.
Over the last two days, official administration comments have morphed from confident assertions of trust in the Egyptian government to tentative suggestions that the regime might want to reconsider its ways and introduce needed reforms. Have we forgotten that the U.S. propped up this corrupt, ineffective regime for 30 years? In all of its rhetoric and pretensions to promote democracy, does this administration really not remember that it, like its predecessors, actually discourages democratic reform and habitually sides with authoritarian, corrupt regimes (e.g., Egypt, Afghanistan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, to name but a few) as long as they are dutifully subservient to the U.S? Even now, as Mohammaed El Baradei seems to be emerging as a leader of the protest movement and possible successor to Mubarak, the conversation in Washington seems to be, "Is he acceptable to us?"
These past few days, after witnessing the outbreak of the uprising in Egypt against 30 years of a dictatorial regime and after listening to the limp wristed rhetoric emanating from the U.S. State Department, I am reminded of the opening lyrics of Sam Cooke's 1958 tune: Don't know much about history. Not only did the U.S. apparently underestimate the significance of the revolt in Tunisia a week earlier that resulted in the over through of that country's leader, ten days later, the State Department seems to have forgotten that it even happened. Short term memory loss? I don't think so. More like habitual suppression of inconvenient realities. When Hillary Clinton expressed her confidence in Egypt's stable government on day two of the uprising, had she forgotten that Iran under the Shah was also considered stable by the U.S. even up to the even of the Iranian revolution?
On Day Six, no one knows which direction Egypt will go. The Tunisian model is a distinct possibility, but so also in the Iranian model-broad dissatisfaction with an obviously manipulated election was firmly suppressed there in the Spring of 2010. I doubt strongly that there will be a Tienanmen Square style crackdown on the protesters, but this cannot be ruled out. The Mubarak regime may be positioning itself for abdication. The special forces are no longer on the streets. A vice president has been appointed for the first time in 30 years and Mubarak's wife and two sons have already left for London. One thing I do know is that this would be a great time for the U.S. to exercise a little change we can believe in.
